Signboard of the Madrasa Taleem al-Quran, run by Maulana Masood Azhar. Credit: Twitter
Edit: I have found some new information which suggests my original conclusion may not be correct.
Original answer below, new information in the end.
Original answer:
I don’t believe IAF destroyed any terrorist camps.
I would be very happy if I am wrong about this and the mission has been a success. But the evidence I have seen so far says otherwise.
When it comes to India-Pakistan news, my experience is that you can’t blindly believe either side without independent confirmation. When it comes to a national level conflict, both Indian and Pakistani media just parrot whatever the government tells them.
But by now we have had three independent reports from reputed international media sources - a New York Times Report, a Reuters report and this report in BBC Hindi. Both the Reuters and BBc report are based on interviews with villagers who live near the strike zone. The reports agree with each other but disagree with the official versions of India and Pakistan.
Let me summarize the main takeaways from the reports (but do read them):
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The Saint called Prof.Dr Sheikh Jalal
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1. Villagers confirmed that Jaish-e-Mohammad had been operating in the Balakot area for a long time. Jaish used to have a training camp which they later turned into a Madrasa.
2. This Jaish-run Madrasa stood on a hilltop and villagers said that they were not allowed close to it. According to the BBC report Jaish no longer ran training camps in that area.
3. The IAF mission was clearly to bomb this Jaish-run Madrasa.
4. Villagers heard four loud bangs in succession at around 3 AM. This confirms that four bombs had been dropped.
5. But none of the bombs hit the Madrasa. Villagers claimed that they exploded about a kilometer away from the Madrasa. They saw four craters where the bombs had hit.
6. Villagers did not find any dead or injured people around. The only casualty was a man sleeping in his house where sharpnel broke the windows.
7. New York Times reports:
The view that little had been damaged was supported by military analysts and two Western security officials, who said that any militant training areas at the site, in the Pakistani province of Khyber-Pakhtunkwha, had long since packed up or dispersed.
To summarize, India targeted a Jaish-run Madrasa and dropped four bombs, but missed by a small margin. Given the information I have received so far, I believe this is what happened.
Why do I believe this is the true version of events?
Firstly, these are from reputed and independent sources. Moreover these independent sources agree with each other. If India can produce some evidence of the strike or some other independent organization evidence to the contrary, I will change my mind.
So far, all I am seeing from the India side are statements and self-congratulation (and fake videos on Whatsapp).
As an aside let me note that even if it were a successful mission, tactically it would be much wiser to keep quiet about it. The fanfare is for political gains, not tactical ones.
Secondly, the Reuters report in particular is unlikely to be a fake news planted by Pakistan, because it clearly shows that Jaish-e-Mohammad was running a training camp in their soil. They would not plant a story which admits this.
Thirdly, a missed airstrike is the most plausible scenario. It is extremely unlikely that an air strike would not be anticipated by Pakistan. The terrorists have been moved to a location which would be close enough to Pakistani airbase so that Indian jets would not be able to get to them in time. If IAF bombs really missed them by a mere kilometer, it shows that the IAF had come within mere seconds of hitting the target.
That’s really impressive given that Pakistan was obviously prepared for this and as Waqas Maqsood pointed out in the comments, IAF fighters would be under orders not to engage PAF jets as that would be an act of war. Indeed, the whole incursion lasted only three minutes. It seems to me that the IAF knew it was up against near-impossible odds, took a chance and almost pulled it off. That is very impressive. I wish they had managed to blow up some terrorist camps but I don’t think they did.
The key point is evidence. I need to see some evidence before I believe either side. Till then I will believe the only evidence that has come from neutral sources and is also entirely consistent with facts and logic.
I would love to be proved wrong. I would love to know that India has made a strong response and showed that we won’t take this anymore.
But if the government is feeding us false information and misleading us about this for political gains, then that is very sad.
New info:
This tweet from a Pakistani student in UK. He is saying his friend told him that the madrasa was hit but not many died.
Indian Air Force,Pakistan Air Force,Pulwama Attack,Surgical Strike,Adil Ahmad Dar,
So a friend from the area has confirmed that madressa Taleem-ul-Quran (it’s board says run by Hazrat Maulana Masood Azhar) at Mansehra (Balakot) was hit, & there are ~10 ambulances around. But the area is now sealed.
Jaish-e-Mohammed , Fake News,Indian Media Channels,Balakot Attack,Imran Khan
So a friend from the area has confirmed that madressa Taleem-ul-Quran (it’s board says run by Hazrat Maulana Masood Azhar) at Mansehra (Balakot) was hit, & there are ~10 ambulances around. But the area is now sealed.
