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| Pakistan’s Air Victory : A Turning Point in South Asian Power Politics |
We are witnessing a historic turning point in the skies over Kashmir – one that could reshape global perceptions of the military capabilities of a great power.
The attacks, which lasted 25 minutes, took place between 1:05 am and 1:30 am Indian time, according to officials on May 7. The echoes of the blasts sent shockwaves through the region and the intensity of the blasts was such that civilians were awakened from their slumber.
The Pakistani military announced that it had shot down six Indian warplanes during the pre-dawn clash. The Indian government has not issued an official response. However, Indian media, citing government sources, have reported that at least three Indian Air Force aircraft have crashed in disputed state of Kashmir. Local residents filmed the wreckage believed to be from Indian Rafale fighter jets, leading many observers to consider Pakistan's claim of shooting down six Indian jets largely credible.
Residents of Pampur reported 5-7 loud air blasts and shared videos showing parts of the downed projectile. People look at a part of the aircraft in Pampur, near the main Kashmir city of Pulwama, on May 7, 2025.'
It is estimated that there is nothing visible on the fighter jet that would indicate that it was of Pakistani or Chinese manufacture. Parts of the projectile were removed from there early this morning.
Locals say an Indian Air Force team is also at the scene to inspect the wreckage, but officials have yet to confirm which aircraft it was or which country it belonged to.
If confirmed, it would be a major achievement for Pakistan’s air defense system, which is reportedly made in China. It would also mean that the Chinese-made system has surpassed jets supplied by other major powers. This could give the world a clear idea of China’s military power.
The Pakistani military claimed that the six Indian aircraft it shot down included three French-made Rafale jets, a Su-30, a MiG-29, and a Heron drone. The Rafale, first delivered to India by France in 2020, is one of France’s most prominent defense exports. Both the Su-30 and the MiG-29 are modern Russian-made fighter jets that are widely used in export markets.
If Pakistan’s calculations are largely correct, it suggests that India’s Russian and French aircraft were no match for the Chinese air defense system. This would mark the most reliable real-world performance of Chinese weapons on a global scale and a breakthrough moment for China’s military industry.
On May 7, India launched a missile strike against Pakistan, not only targeting areas of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir but also reaching deeper than any previous cross-border operation since 1971.
The strike was initially intended to respond to a deadly terrorist attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir and was intended to appease rising nationalist sentiment within India. However, according to currently available reports, the operation failed to achieve India’s intended objectives and instead dealt a blow to its military reputation.
India’s lack of immediate response to Pakistan’s claims likely reflects strategic uncertainty—India is now caught between a rock and a hard place: letting the incident go now would be more humiliating than avoiding an attack in the first place, but launching another airstrike risks depriving Pakistan of more aircraft, including its Chinese-supplied HQ19 missiles and JF19 missiles. Embarrassment.
The JF-17 fighter jet, which played a key role in demonstrating Pakistan’s strength in the clash, currently has around 150 in the Pakistan Air Force fleet. Of these, the most advanced is the JF-17 Block 3, of which about 24 units have been delivered. This model is equipped with advanced avionics, an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, and PL-15 missiles capable of beyond-visual-range engagement.
In addition, Pakistan recently commissioned the Chinese-made HQ-9P long-range air defense missile system. With a maximum range of 260 kilometers, a single HQ-9P battalion consists of eight quad-launch vehicles and can cover a defense radius of about 125 kilometers.
Some analysts believe that the HQ-9P, when combined with the LY-80 medium-range air defense system, the ZDK-03 airborne early warning aircraft, and the JF-17 fighter—all acquired from China—form a multi-layered “long-medium-short” air defense network. This structure may have given Pakistan a local air defense advantage over India in the Kashmir region.
India’s national strength far exceeds Pakistan’s, but the Indian Air Force lags behind. Like Pakistan, its air defense system relies on imports. India’s military equipment is a mix of different systems, more than half of which are acquired from Russia. In recent years, India has purchased French “Rafale” jets and is now buying American-made equipment. The varying levels of interoperability and technological advancement of these systems pose challenges in achieving unified operational integration and interoperability, which affects their overall effectiveness in joint operations.
Pakistan had previously purchased American F-16 aircraft, but military cooperation with Pakistan was suspended after the United States expressed concerns about Pakistan’s alleged ties, and thus Pakistan’s military modernization efforts became entirely dependent on China. The Chinese-made J-10 fighter jet and the export version of the JF-17 Thunder (JF-17) have been widely used in Pakistan, and shipments of Chinese-made Hongqi (HQ-9) air defense missiles have been provided. In the 2019 India-Pakistan conflict, there were reports of Pakistan using JF-17 Thunder aircraft to shoot down Indian jets, which greatly enhanced the reputation of Chinese military equipment.
