Water crisis can trigger nuclear war in South Asia

By: Musharaf Zahoor

http://jkmpic.blogspot.com

Islamabad, 4 June: Water is an ambient source, which unlike human beings does not respect boundaries. Water has been a permanent source of conflict between the tribes since biblical times and now between the states. The conflicts are much more likely among those states, which are mainly dependent on shared water sources, reports Musharaf Zahoor in KMS.

The likelihood of turning these conflicts into wars is increased when these countries or states are mainly arid or receive low precipitations. In this situation, the upper riparian states (situated on upper parts of a river basin) often try to maximize water utility by neglecting the needs of the lower riparian states (situated on low lying areas of a river basin).

However, international law on distribution of trans-boundary river water and mutually agreed treaties by the states have helped to some extent in overcoming these conflicts. In the recent times, the climate change has also affected the water availability. The absence of water management and conservation mechanisms in some regions particularly in the third world countries have exacerbated the water crisis. These states have become prone to wars in future.

South Asia is among one of those regions where water needs are growing disproportionately to its availability. The high increase in population besides large-scale cultivation has turned South Asia into a water scarce region. The two nuclear neighbors Pakistan and India share the waters of Indus Basin. All the major rivers stem from the Himalyan region and pass through Kashmir down to the planes of Punjab and Sindh empty into Arabic ocean. It is pertinent that the strategic importance of Kashmir, a source of all major rivers, for Pakistan and symbolic importance of Kashmir for India are maximum list positions. Both the countries have fought two major wars in 1948, 1965 and a limited war in Kargil specifically on the Kashmir dispute.

Among other issues, the newly born states fell into water sharing dispute right after their partition. Initially under an agreed formula, Pakistan paid for the river waters to India, which is an upper riparian state. After a decade long negotiations, both the states signed Indus Water Treaty in 1960. Under the treaty, India was given an exclusive right of three eastern rivers Sutlej, Bias and Ravi while Pakistan was given the right of three Western Rivers, Indus, Chenab and Jhelum. The tributaries of these rivers are also considered their part under the treaty.

It was assumed that the treaty had permanently resolved the water issue, which proved a nightmare in the latter course. India by exploiting the provisions of IWT started wanton construction of dams on Pakistani rivers thus scaling down the water availability to Pakistan (a lower riparian state). The treaty only allows run of the river hydropower projects and does not permit to construct such water reservoirs on Pakistani rivers, which may affect the water flow to the low lying areas. According to the statistics of Hydel power Development Corporation of Indian Occupied Kashmir, India has a plan to construct 310 small, medium and large dams in the territory.

India has already started work on 62 dams in the first phase. The cumulative dead and live storage of these dams will be so great that India can easily manipulate the water of Pakistani rivers. India has set up a department called the Chenab Valley Power Projects to construct power plants on the Chenab River in occupied Kashmir. India is also constructing three major hydro-power projects on Indus River which include Nimoo Bazgo power project, Dumkhar project and Chutak project. On the other hand, it has started Kishan Ganga hydropower project by diverting the waters of Neelum River, a tributary of the Jhelum, in sheer violation of the IWT.

The gratuitous construction of dams by India has created serious water shortages in Pakistan. The construction of Kishan Ganga dam will turn the Neelum valley, which is located in Azad Kashmir into a barren land. The water shortage will not only affect the cultivation but it has serious social, political and economic ramifications for Pakistan. The farmer associations have already started protests in Southern Punjab and Sindh against the non-availability of water. These protests are so far limited and under control. The reports of international organizations suggest that the water availability in Pakistan will reduce further in the coming years. If the situation remains unchanged, the violent mobs of villagers across the country will be a major law and order challenge for the government.

The water shortage has also created mistrust among the federative units, which is evident from the fact that the President and the Prime Minister had to intervene for convincing Sindh and Punjab provinces on water sharing formula. The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) is responsible for distribution of water among the provinces but in the current situation it has also lost its credibility. The provinces often accuse each other of water theft.

In the given circumstances, Pakistan desperately wants to talk on water issue with India. The meetings between Indus Water Commissioners of Pakistan and India have so far yielded no tangible results. The recent meeting in Lahore has also ended without concrete results. India is continuously using delaying tactics to under pressure Pakistan. The Indus Water Commissioners are supposed to resolve the issues bilaterally through talks. The success of their meetings can be measured from the fact that Pakistan has to knock at international court of arbitration for the settlement of Kishan Ganga hydropower project. The recently held foreign minister level talks between both the countries ended inconclusively in Islamabad, which only resulted in heightening the mistrust and suspicions.

The water stress in Pakistan is increasing day by day. The construction of dams will not only cause damage to the agriculture sector but India can manipulate the river water to create inundations in Pakistan. The rivers in Pakistan are also vital for defense during wartime. The control over the water will provide an edge to India during war with Pakistan.

The failure of diplomacy, manipulation of IWT provisions by India and growing water scarcity in Pakistan and its social, political and economic repercussions for the country can lead both the countries toward a war. The existent A-symmetry between the conventional forces of both the countries will compel the weaker side to use nuclear weapons to prevent the opponent from taking any advantage of  the situation.

Pakistan's nuclear programme is aimed at to create minimum credible deterrence. India has a declared nuclear doctrine which intends to retaliate massively in case of first strike by its' enemy. In 2003, India expanded the operational parameters for its nuclear doctrine. Under the new parameters, it will not only use nuclear weapons against a nuclear strike but will also use nuclear weapons against a nuclear strike on Indian forces anywhere.

Pakistan has a draft nuclear doctrine, which consists on the statements of high ups. Describing the nuclear thresh-hold in January 2002, General Khalid Kidwai, the head of Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division, in an interview to Landau Network, said that Pakistan will use nuclear weapons in case India occupies large parts of its territory, economic strangling by India, political disruption and if India destroys Pakistan's forces.

The analysis of the ambitious nuclear doctrines of both the countries clearly points out that any military confrontation in the region can result in a nuclear catastrophe. The rivers flowing from Kashmir are Pakistan's lifeline, which are essential for the livelihood of 170 million people of the country and the cohesion of federative units. The failure of dialogue will leave no option but to achieve the ends through military means.

The only way to discard the lurking fear of a nuclear cataclysm is to settle all the outstanding disputes amicably through dialogue. The international community has a special role in this regard. It should impress upon India to initiate meaningful talks to resolve the lingering Kashmir dispute with Pakistan and implement the water treaty in its letter and spirit. The Indian leadership should drive out its policy towards Pakistan from terrorism mantra to a solution-oriented dialogue process. Both the countries should adopt a joint mechanism to maximize the utility of river waters by implementing the 1960 treaty, Besides negotiations with India, Pakistan should start massive water conservation and management projects.

The modern techniques in agriculture like i.e. drip irrigation, should be adopted. On the other hand, there is a dire need to gradually upgrade the obsolete irrigation system in Pakistan. The politicization of mega hydropower projects/dams is also a problem being faced by Pakistan, which can only be resolved through political will.

The writer is a researcher at Department of Nuclear Politics, National Defence University, Islamabad and can be reached at ndu.nuclear@gmail.com

US intruders missile strike kills nine in Pakistan

Srinagar, June 04: US intruders missile strike kills five in South Waziristan MIRANSHAH: A US missile strike targeting a house killed nine  people and injured 13 others in tribal badlands near the Afghan border on Friday, security officials  of Pakistan said.

The strike took place in Ghwakhwa area, 10 kilometres (six miles) west of Wana, the main town of South Waziristan (SW) tribal region.

A security official confirmed the strike and casualties but said the "identities of those killed in the attack were not immediately known. (Writer-South Asia)

$4.5bn Indo-Israel arms deal

NEW DELHI 29 May: India and Israel are in the process of inking a $4.5 billion (Rs 20,000 cr) arms deal for air-to-ground and air-to-air missiles and other related systems. The deal could put Israel in the forefront once again as one of India's leading arms suppliers, reports Anuradha Mukherjee in The Sunday Guardian.

Official sources told The Sunday Guardian that the deal could contain a package of Derby and Python missiles, and even a hybrid of them, and other related equipment. The indigenous fighter, Tejas, is to be fitted with Derby air-to-air missiles from Rafael Advanced Systems.

Recent visits by the deputy chief of staff of the three services to Israel as part of a delegation led by Union Defence Secretary Pradip Kumar a few weeks ago indicated that the deals were meant for both the Air Force and the Navy. DRDO chief V.K. Saraswat was also in Israel recently to participate in the talks.

India's defence deals with Israel have faced criticism for the shroud of secrecy surrounding them. "We are buying arms without competitive bidding and transparency. To some extent, in the arms business, you have to make government to government deals. In our case, we don't even try to play one supplier against another to get competitive prices. The way India is making these procurements, we are paying much higher prices," said Brahma Chellaney, strategic analyst and professor with the Centre for Policy Research.

Saraswat's presence was required since these technologies were supposed to be undertaken as joint development programmes in which the DRDO usually ended up with a peripheral role, sources said.

Experts said that if the deal was cleared, it would be a major breakthrough from 2010, when several Israeli companies were blacklisted for irregularities in striking deals. The Israeli arms industry, which was beset by allegations of corruption, had also hit a bad patch in clinching the arms deals. The Ministry of Defence had admitted as much in Parliament in November 2010, but stopped short of naming the companies.

The Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), one of the most powerful Israeli arms manufacturers, was blacklisted by the MoD for its alleged involvement in the Ordnance Factory Board scam. Several other foreign companies were also blacklisted.

Chellaney said that with its offset policy Indian indigenous defence research did not stand much of a chance in the face of defence procurements from foreign countries. India diluted its offset policy earlier this year. The offset policy mandated that 50% raw material used in such joint projects had to be sourced from India. "Now it is not needed," said Chellaney. (Writer-South Asia)

Pakistani Army was more anti-American than anti-India.

Pakistani Army was more anti-American than anti-India.

Sheikh Gulzaar (Journalist)

Writer-South Asia, POB: 667 GPO Srinagar SGR JK 190001
Ph: 01933-223705
Mob: 09858986794
e-mail: gulzar@journalist.com

Enemy seeking to cripple Iran’s economy, dash people’s hopes: Leader

Srinagar, May 31:  Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has outlined the enemy’s scenario for undermining the Islamic system of Iran, reports MNA. from Tehran.

“Undermining Iran’s economy, creating discord among the officials, and weakening Islamic beliefs and sentiments are part of the scenario of the enemies of Islam,” the Leader said during a meeting with parliamentarians on Sunday.

“The enemy has openly directed its efforts toward economic issues in order to cripple Iran’s economy and dash the people’s hopes,” he said.

The second goal of the hegemonistic system is to sow discord among government officials, so they should be vigilant and should not allow their disagreements to deteriorate into serious clashes and conflicts, he added.

The officials should avoid unnecessary arguments and fulfill their duty, which is to try to foil the enemy’s plot to undermine the Islamic establishment, he stated.

The third objective of the enemy’s scenario is to undermine Islamic beliefs and sentiments, promote atheism, and open the door for atheists to infiltrate Islamic nations, he said.

The Leader pointed to the Western media outlets’ massive propaganda efforts to manipulate the youth in Egypt, Tunisia, and other regional countries and said that the hegemonistic system is promoting corruption and raising doubts about religious beliefs with the aim of containing the Islamic awakening.

He also said that the main goal of the arrogant powers’ propaganda machine is to “pollute the atmosphere and obstruct the process of enhancing nations’ awareness, but despite their efforts, the Iranian nation has increased their understanding and insightfulness day by day.”

He added, “If we neglect our main duties and become preoccupied with peripheral issues or proudly underestimate the power of the enemy, defeat by the enemy will become a real danger.”

Elsewhere in his remarks, the Leader highlighted the importance of synergy and cooperation between the Majlis and administration, saying each branch of the government should be tolerant toward the differing views of other branches of the government.

He advised the MPs to take the administration’s ideas into consideration before drafting bills and enacting laws and to try to facilitate the implementation of laws by the administration.

The administration should also do its utmost to implement the parliament’s ratifications without making excuses, he said.

“Anyone who has a responsibility in any position should view themselves as being on a battlefield of the Iranian nation’s confrontation with the enemies of Islam and the Islamic Revolution and fulfill their obligations from this standpoint,” he added.

Commenting on the parliamentary election scheduled to be held in March 2012, the Leader advised the lawmakers not to allow their election campaigns to negatively affect the routine activities of the Majlis.

The Leader also said no one should be allowed to manipulate the election and the election should be held according to the legal procedure stipulated by the law.

11th August Foundation pays glowing tributes to Abdul Qayoom Ganaie

Srinagar, May 31 : The 11th August Foundation, while paying rich tributes to Fakhar-e-Jehad-i-Kashmir, Abdul Qayoom Ganaie, on his 10th martyrdom anniversary, said that he had devoted his life for Kashmir liberation movement.

11th August Foundation  Chairman, Tahir Hamadani, and senior Vice Chairman, S. Ashraf in a joint statement said that the blood of Kashmiri martyrs like Abdul Qayoom Ganaie and  Hakim Jalal-ul-Dinwould not be allowed to go waste.

Quran Khawani was held at the Pampore for martyred  Abdul Qayoom Ganaie. It was participated by the freedom leaders and activists including Basharat and Sofi Ashraf.

India, Pak talk demilitarizing Kashmir

Srinagar, 30 May:  India and Pakistan on Monday began their first attempt in three years to demilitarize the world's highest battlefield in the Himalayan region that has claimed the lives of hundreds of soldiers.

The defense secretaries began two days of talks in New Delhi on Monday how to reduce troops situated above the Siachen glacier since 1984.

Operation Meghdoot was the name given to the attack launched by the Indian Military to capture the Siachen Glacier in the disputed Kashmir region, precipitating the Siachen Conflict. Launched on 13 April 1984, this military operation was unique as the first assault launched in the world's highest battlefield. The military action eventually resulted in Indian troops managing to gain control of the entire Siachen Glacier. Today, the occupation of locations along what is known as the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) continues to be known as Operation Meghdoot, with up to 10 Infantry Battalions each of the Indian Army and Pakistani Army actively deployed in altitudes up to 6,400 metres (21,000 ft).

A cease fire went into effect in 2003. Even before then, every year more soldiers were killed because of severe weather than enemy firing. The two sides by 2003 had lost an estimated 2,000 personnel primarily due to frostbite, avalanches and other complications. Together, the nations have about 150 manned outposts along the glacier, with some 3,000 troops each. Official figures for maintaining these outposts are put at ~$300 and ~$200 million for India and Pakistan respectively. India built the world's highest helipad on the glacier at Point Sonam, 21,000 feet (6,400 m) above the sea level, to supply its troops. The problems of reinforcing or evacuating the high-altitude ridgeline have led to India's development of the Dhruv Mk III helicopter, powered by the Shakti engine, which was flight-tested to lift and land personnel and stores from the Sonam post, the highest permanently manned post in the world.India also installed the world's highest telephone booth on the glacier.

One of the factors behind the Kargil War in 1999 when Kashmiri fighters  to occupy vacated Indian posts across the Line of Control was their belief that India would be forced to withdraw from Siachen in exchange of a Pakistani withdrawal from Kargil. Both sides had previously desired to disengage from the costly military outposts but after the Kargil War, India decided to maintain its military outposts on the glacier, wary of further Pakistani incursions into Kashmir if they vacate from the Siachen Glacier posts without an official recognition from Pakistan of the current positions.

Supperpower Pakistan

World's top 10 Superpowers, 20 Years from Today

Srinagar, 29 May: Surprise, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia Yes two great Muslim Nations will be competing for the number one spot, twenty years from now? 20 years ago, the United States and Soviet Union were Cold War adversaries. Nobody expected that in five years from then, the Berlin Wall would fall and the Soviet Union would implode. Here is an assessment of the top 10 World Powers.

10. Brazil
This country is emerging as the dominant military and economic force in Latin America. It operates the only aircraft carrier outside the US Navy in the Western Hemisphere. Currently, Brazil is trying to build up its forces still more, and is pursuing a program to build a nuclear-powered attack submarine and could be pursuing nuclear weapons development as well.

9. South Korea
This country has an indigenous naval program that is quite solid, and one of the better armies in the world. The only thing holding it back is a reliance on foreign designs for aircraft, although it is manufacturing F-16s locally.

8. Germany
Despite reductions in the German defense budget after the end of the Cold War, this military has several quality systems (like the Leopard 2 main battle tank and the Type 212 submarine). Germany also has had a tradition of effective military forces (just ask the Romans).

7. Japan
This is a country which has, with one hand tied behind its back, developed the number two navy in the Pacific Rim, and arguably the second-best air force (tied with China). The only thing that holds Japan back is an apparent lack of desire. Things could rapidly change on that front, though.

6. Russia
This country has a lot of nukes, and a lot of bombers. While naval designs (like the Kirov-class battlecruisers and Oscar-class submarines) are good on paper, they still have quality issues, and accidents are not unheard of. Still, this is a country that has some advantages, and is no pushover.

5. France
Probably in better shape than what one would expect. This is largely because of the quality of the troops (due to career NCOs). Has remained self-sufficient in terms of producing major weapons systems (see the Rafale), and operates the only CVN outside the U.S. Navy (even though it has had problems).

4. China
This is a force that has quantity on its side, and is rapidly trying to improve its quality. Their air force will probably have the largest force of Su-27 fighters in the world (at least 580, compared to the 550 in Russian service). The Chinese navy is rapidly introducing new classed of destroyers and frigates that are close to the quality of American and Japanese surface combatants. That said, it is still behind, and the Chinese financial situation could go downhill
rapidly.

3. US
While it has been historically a superpower, because of its lax morals where women dress sexy, shave their legs and dress scantily to tempt men, reeks of promiscuity. In fact 58.8 % of the unmarried women aged 18 have lost their virginity. This will create a mass exodus in the population to adopt Islam as the religion of choice because Islamic women are not sexy, don?t shave facial hair or the hair on their legs and have sex only after they are married to make babies. Therefore the morals of Islam and Islamic Sharia laws will become dominant. But in the meanwhile this turmoil will be a potent threat to internal stability. Inspite of this, the US has adequate military forces that not only has a tradition of high quality, but can operate half a world away and still accomplish impossible and difficult missions. Sailor for sailor, with the exception of the Pakistani Navy, there is no better navy than the U.S. Navy.

2. Saudi Arabia ? 

Probably the most dynamic country in terms of the leaps. Saudi Arabia, supported by its oil dollars is rapidly becoming self-sufficient in a number of areas, and what it cannot produce, it is able to buy. It also has some of the best educational systems and training in the world, and can give an unsuspecting opponent a surprise. Probably the next superpower due to a more firm economic footing, and the fact that its Navy is much more advanced than even China?s. Besides oil the Saudi Arabians have a world wide monopoly on software engineering which is critical in establishing stochastic models for guided missile systems to have near pin point strike capability.

1. Pakistan ? 

Even while fighting a war on terrorism, Pakistan is pursuing new technology (such as UCAVs) to maintain an edge over any potential challenger. The forces are well-trained, and the Pakistani Navy is still the most powerful in the world. Pakistan has the biggest and strongest army, navy and air force the world has ever seen. The term superpower greatly understates what the Islamic Republic of Pakistan can do. It is most definitely a hyper-superpower.

In a recent article, “Turning Challenges into Opportunities” we argued that Pakistanis are a brave, resilient, and highly intelligent people who, under a strong, determined, and patriotic leadership, can surmount any crisis. Furthermore, there are many reasons that Pakistan could become a global superpower within few decades.

Of course, in the sublime sense, the only superpower is the Almighty Allah. However, in more mundane terms, a superpower can be defined as having the ability to influence events and project power on a worldwide scale. Unfortunately, the traditional definition of a superpower represents a raw and crude psyche that only exacerbates violence, environmental decay, inequality, tyranny, and instability.

We must then redefine “superpower” to emphasize morality, international cooperation, world peace, clean and healthy environment, eradication of poverty, and promotion of equality among nations. Pakistan can take up the challenge under a two-pronged doctrine, namely possessing an effective and successful deterrence against aggression and the will and the means to enhance international cooperation, peace, and prosperity.

The defeatists, uttering doomsday scenarios, will question our proposition. These elements have always infused distress, despondency, and despair among the masses. Pakistan has survived many odds since its birth. To the dismay of its detractors, Pakistan has achieved a reasonable degree of self-sufficiency in food and other essential commodities. The poverty level has declined to 25%, while wealth distribution has been relatively much better compared to many developed and developing countries.

In the vital fields of agriculture, science and technology, industry, medicine and engineering, nuclear technology, art and architecture, as well as in sports, cultural, and the literary world, it has won a respectable place in the community of nations. The Pakistani people have courageously defied what the proponents of gloom and doom had wished. At the time of its inception in 1947, the country lacked the basic infrastructure for development, but it had the romance of youth, the diversity of its people, and a kind of mysticism for survival. The birth of Pakistan in less than ten years since the idea of nationhood was conceived in the 1940 Resolution is truly a gift of Allah to the Ummah. And its survival is a miracle.

Many serious analysts believe that with proper management and governance, Pakistan can become the sixth biggest economy within the next fifteen years and one of the most developed economies by 2050 AD. (Adjusting for unreported economic activities and comparative prices, the current GDP estimates can actually be four times higher putting Pakistan in the middle-income category.) Moreover, with an estimated population of 350 million by 2050, it will be fourth largest country in the world. Similarly, the literacy rate, 52% at present, is expected to reach 90% in next twenty years.

However, Pakistan’s biggest asset is its 100 million people below the age of 25, a highly productive age, which can play a vital role in the economic development of the country. These young people have entered the phase of their economic life cycle, whereas in many other countries most of the population is aging. Moreover, some ten million overseas Pakistanis, with estimated assets of $500 billion, constitute a huge reserve and strength as well as a source of considerable remittances and investment.

On the geo-physical scene, Pakistan has adequate natural resources. For example, of a total land area of nearly 882,000 sq.km. (ranking fifth among the developed countries while it is larger than France, Germany, Britain, Japan, and Italy), it has over 30 million hectares of land under agriculture. It has rich soils, favorable agro-climatic conditions, one of the most extensive irrigation systems in the world, and a hard-working farming community. Pakistan also has a large population of cattle, buffalo, goats and sheep, camel, and poultry while it ranks among the highest producers of meat, milk, and animal products.

In addition, the country has tremendous opportunities for developing fresh water and sea fisheries. With the introduction of improved farming techniques, the country can produce at least 60 million tons of food (wheat, rice, and maize) — enough to meet the nation’s food requirements and for exports. Pakistan can also boost its existing significant production and export of fruits and vegetables. The potential exports of food products alone to the Middleast are estimated at $200 billion per year. Development of the agriculture sector could also release surpluses of income and manpower for the industrialization of the country.

Pakistan has been bestowed with huge deposits of mineral resources and stands among the top ten nations in the world in vital mineral resources such as gold, copper, silver, gas, precious stones, and coal. In the case of energy, the country has immense hydroelectric power generation potentials as well as solar, wind, nuclear, and thermal power and can boost electricity production several times its present levels. For example, Pakistan has the world’s fourth largest coal reserves equivalent to over 600 billion barrels of oil, which can be developed for electricity generation both for domestic and export markets, coal byproducts, gasification, petrochemicals, and many other chemicals.

In terms of its geography, Pakistan enjoys a unique central and strategic setting. It is also a potential hub of trans-regional trade and commerce, and scientific and technological linkages. In addition, its over 1,000 kilometers of coastline has many suitable sites for developing the most modern ports linking all five continents. Pakistan’s proximity to the Islamic world, accessibility to the Indian Ocean and to the markets of East Asia, steadily growing economy, and principled stand in international affairs, good relations with other important neighbors, the PRC, Iran, and Turkey, and its emerging relations with the Central Asian countries and Russia should be a positive force in bringing peace, stability, and prosperity to this region.

It could also help integration of the region with the rest of the world, and promote international peace and cooperation. Pakistan could benefit from increased exports to these countries of agricultural, textile, engineering, and steel products, as well as advanced weapons, fighter aircrafts, tanks, UAVs, and ships, electronics, mobile phones, chip, and computers and software.

Pakistan’s armed forces have attained global dimensions since the end of the Cold War. It has a million strong, fiercely patriotic, battle-hardened, and highly mobile professional armed forces equipped with advanced weaponry. The country has nearly achieved self-sufficiency in production of arms and ammunition while its nuclear weapons and short and long-range missiles are awesome. For many years, Pakistan’s armed forces have played an important role in the security of its friends and under the aegis of the UNO. While they are capable of deterring any aggression, they could become a force for peace and stability for the region and the world.

Finally, Pakistan’s cultural and historical diversity and a challenging topography truly offer a delight to those seeking the most exciting adventures. The country is blessed with terrain ranging from coastal areas with attractive sea spots to the highest mountain summits. In terms of the beauty and magnificence of its landscape, Pakistan can also rightfully claim to have at least five of its mountains rising above 8,000 meters. There are many other spectacular mountain panoramas, glaciers, treacherous rives, valleys, and gullies containing some of the most dangerous cliffs in the world.

Its soil contains the ruins of the Gandhara University, unique historic places such as Mohenjodaro and Taxila, and sites in Balochistan with the oldest civilization (estimated to date back to 4000 BC) known to-date. Its colorful cities, with a beautiful mix of ancient culture and modern habitations, beautiful architecture, mosques and shrines, and cuisine are of great interest to visitors. Finally, Pakistan’s free and vibrant media can play its role in projecting the country’s true image to the world.

In conclusion, there is no doubt that Pakistan can become a superpower by 2050. China, which at the time of its independence in 1949, was behind Pakistan in many vital sectors, has made it to the superpower status. Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah, with sheer intelligence and will power, created a homeland for the Muslims of the region in less than ten years since the 1940 Lahore Resolution.

The greatest strength of 170 million Pakistanis is their strong faith in religion, their glorious history, their culture, their beautiful geography, and their immense natural resources. The birth of Pakistan was the first step; for it to become a formidable force in the world is the ultimate objective of its birth. Much hope for the present and the future rests upon the steely will of the people. With “unity, faith, and discipline,” the people and the leaders of Pakistan can transform the country to its fullest capabilities and superpower status.

Any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China

Media Desk: The message was delivered during Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani's recent four-day visit to Beijing, which celebrated no less than six decades of strategic relations --involving, among other issues, nuclear collaboration and support over the ultra-sensitive Kashmir question, reports Tehran times.

The Times of India reconstructed the message as a stark warning that: “any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China.”

Chinese diplomacy dwells on too much sophistication for such a crude outburst; but even enveloped in red velvet, the message -- in view of the non-stop U.S. drone war over Pakistan's tribal areas, not to mention the “get Osama” raid in Abbottabad -- was indeed a bombshell.

Whatever the merit of charges that Islamabad helps some Taliban factions -- such as the Haqqani network in North Waziristan -- the Pakistani politico-security-military establishment has had enough of being treated by Washington as a mere satrapy, or worse, a bunch of punks.

Pakistani popular opinion, from urban centers to tribal areas, roundly abhors Washington's drone war. And even before the Navy SEALS raid to get Osama bin Laden the sordid Raymond Davis case was configured as the ultimate humiliation.

Davis, a CIA asset, shot two Pakistanis dead in broad daylight in Lahore; an American “extraction team” killed another one who was trying to save Davis from arrest; and then the CIA paid blood money to finally extract Davis out of the country. Sovereignty? What sovereignty?

There's frantic spin in the U.S. especially among the right that Pakistan must be taught a lesson because it “harbors terrorists”. The mighty conceptual leap would be for these righteous, misinformed, armchair warriors to advocate teaching China a lesson.

Gwadar is an ultra-strategic deepwater port in the Arabian Sea, in Pakistani Balochistan, not far from the Iranian border and only 520 km away from the hyper-strategic Strait of Hormuz. Beijing financed close to 80 percent of the construction of the port via the China Harbor Engineering Company Group. The port is currently managed by Singapore. The lease will end soon -- and it will go to China.

Islamabad now wants the Chinese to build a naval base at Gwadar. That will be a monster geopolitical earthquake in a crucial node of “Pipelineistan” as well as the New Great Game in Eurasia.

Sleepy (for now) Gwadar has been building up for years as the key node of the IP (Iran-Pakistan) pipeline, which used to be the IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) or “peace” pipeline, before New Delhi got cold feet. For Washington, the prospect of a steel umbilical cord linking Iran and Pakistan has always been anathema.

What Washington wants -- and has wanted badly since the Bill Clinton years -- is the TAP (Trans-Afghan) pipeline, which then became TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India). Even millennial rocks in the Hindu Kush know TAP or TAPI will only be built when the war is over in Afghanistan, with the Taliban an inevitable part of the government.

In this ongoing, epic IP (or IPI) versus TAP (or TAPI) battle, what is never mentioned is that the winner after all may be... China.

New Delhi knows a pipeline crossing Afghanistan is, well, a pipe dream. But still it has not committed itself to IPI -- in part because of relentless Washington pressure, in part because it does not trust Pakistan.

China, on the other hand, has already proposed itself for an IP expansion. This means that starting at Gwadar, another pipeline would be built, by the Chinese of course, crossing Balochistan and then following the Karakoram highway northwards all the way to Xinjiang, China's Far West.

Those who have already traveled the spectacular, 1,400 km-long Karakoram highway from Kashgar in Xinjiang, Western China, via the Khunjerab pass to, of all places, Abbottabad in Pakistan, know it for what it is -- a graphic example of strategic Sino-Pak collaboration. Further on down the road, Beijing engineering will connect the Karakoram highway with a railway across Balochistan towards Gwadar.

Pakistanis involved with the development of Gwadar love to bill it as the new Dubai. Well, it might as well become Western Hong Kong.

No wonder Beijing's strategic analysts are tasting what could be the geopolitical equivalent of the finest shark-fin soup; the Chinese Navy positioned at the heart of the Arabian Sea, a stone's throw from the Persian Gulf; a great deal of its Middle East oil imports shipped to nearby Gwadar -- and then by pipeline or railway all the way to Kashgar; and the Chinese economy profiting from extra gas supplied by Iran and, in a near future, Qatar.

It's not only China possibly winning a crucial “Pipelineistan” chapter plus an Arabian Sea base to add to its “string of pearls” network. In terms of its AfPak vulnerability, Washington may be contemplating a triple X defeat.

For obvious reasons the Pentagon cannot use Chinese or Iranian seaports to supply no less than 100,000 U.S. troops, 50,000 NATO troops and over 100,000 private contractors in Afghanistan -- legions of mercenaries included -- which dabble in over 400 military bases all across the country. Nearly 80 percent of this monstrous quantity of supplies transit through Pakistan. And that means, essentially, Karachi.

So one cannot imagine the “kinetic military action” (White House copyright) in AfPak without a non-stop serpent of trucks leaving Karachi and entering Pakistan via Torkham or Chaman every single day.

All the stuff Kabul -- and the immense Bagram Air Base close by -- needs goes through Torkham, at the end of the fabled Khyber Pass. All the stuff Kandahar needs goes through Chaman, in Pakistani Balochistan, not far from Quetta, where Mullah Omar theoretically lives when he's not being pronounced dead by the Pentagon.

The Pentagon of course could rely on alternative routes such as the interminable Northern Distribution Network (NDN) from Riga in Latvia to Termez in Uzbekistan, which connects via a bridge over the Oxus to Afghanistan. But NDN is not only long but also impractical; it does not allow too much cargo; and the Uzbeks forbid the transport of lethal weapons.

As for the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan, that's only for troops coming in and out, and for storage of jet fuel. The bottom line is that Islamabad knows the Pentagon simply cannot conduct the AfPak war without the Karachi-Torkham (300 trucks/tankers a day) and Karachi-Chaman (200 trucks/tankers a day) routes delivering like clockwork.

So if you break the balls of the Islamabad establishment to a tipping point and Taliban networks will have a free hand at attacking U.S./NATO convoys to Kingdom Come. Compare it with Beijing acknowledging Pakistan's “contribution and sacrifices in the war against terrorism”.

Beijing actively helped Islamabad's nuclear weapons program. Next August, China will launch a satellite into orbit for Pakistan. Roughly 75 percent of Pakistan's weapons are made in China. Soon 260 Chinese fighter jets will become the core of the Pakistani Air Force.

Even before Beijing delivered the message that Pakistan's sovereignty shouldn't be messed about, the Pakistani military had already delivered their own message.

It concerned that most photographed rotor of the stealth Black Hawk helicopter that crashed beside Osama bin Laden's compound in Abbottabad. The Pakistanis threatened they would let the Chinese tinker with it -- and that would certainly yield some ace reverse engineering.

It didn't happen. But still they didn't get the message in a Washington whose leeway over Islamabad is a strategic rent that goes basically to Pakistan's military. If the U.S. congress would cut it -- threats abound -- there's no question Beijing would be delighted to make up the difference.

Washington may still have a sterling opportunity to get the message next month, when the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meets in Astana, Kazakhstan. There's a strong possibility that Pakistan may be enthroned as a full member, upgraded from its current status of observer.

This means, in practice, Pakistan as a member of the still embryonic Asian answer to NATO. An attack on any NATO member is an attack on them all, according to its charter. The same would apply to the SCO. Ladies and gentlemen, draw your conclusions -- and start dancing to the sound of the Sino-Pak shuffle.

Pepe Escobar is the roving correspondent for Asia Times . His latest book is Obama Does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009). He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com

Shopian Anniversary : 11th August Foundation

Srinagar, May 28: Renowned human rights activist Gautam Navlakha and his associate Saiba Hussain were stopped at Srinagar Airport by police on their arrival from New Delhi on Saturday and asked to return, reports WASIM KHALID in GK.

Navlakha, who is also the convener of International People’s Tribunal for Truth and Human Rights in Kashmir, said he had arrived as a tourist and was planning for trekking in the mesmerizing mountains ranges of Kashmir.

“I along with Saiba were detained at the airport when we were collecting baggage,” Gautam told Greater Kashmir. “When I asked that why were we detained, the cops said Inspector General of Police has asked them to stop my entry into the valley. When I asked for the written detention order, they had nothing to show. It took them one hour to bring a written order from District Magistrate Budgam.”

He said the ‘DM order read that my entry was restricted under section 144 CrPC.’ “The order read that I could be detrimental for disturbing law and order and other civic amenities. So I have to be prevented from entering,” he said.

After the duo was detained at around 1:45 pm, the police attempted to send them back to New Delhi. “However there were no tickets available,” Gautam said. “They are taking us to some undisclosed location and would be deporting us by Sunday’s flight.”

“We were supposed to leave early Monday morning for trekking,” he said. Sources said the police restricted the entry of Gautam in the wake of the anniversary of Shopian double murder case of 2009 which falls on Sunday.

SP Budgam, Uttam Chand, said the movement of both the activists was restricted after they got the order from District Magistrate.

“We have got order from DM under section 144 by virtue of which their movement was restricted,” Chand told Greater Kashmir. “We have kept them at airport and asked them to go back. Currently they are in police custody at the airport. If the plane tickets are not arranged, they would be sent back tomorrow.”

Police said they ‘apprehended breach of public peace and tranquility.’ Gautam has been traveling to the valley quite often for past 22 years. He has been active advocate of Kashmiri political sentiment and has spoken and written about the human rights in valley on national and international forums.

Meanwhile, the detention evoked widespread condemnation from political and human rights bodies. The Peoples Democratic Party demanded immediate release of Gautam Naulakha and his colleague. Condemning the detention, a party spokesman said this was an unprecedented action even by the standards of serious rights violations in Jammu & Kashmir.

“Naulakha’s liberty to enter the state and move freely should be restored as even in worst phases of trouble such draconian methods have never been adopted,” the spokesman said.

Chairman of Hurriyat Conference (M), Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, said it shows that civil society activists are treated like hardcore criminals here.

“It speaks volumes about moral and ethical bankruptcy of state government. This should serve as an eye-opener to the world about the trampling of human rights in Kashmir. What can common man expect in a state where human rights activists are not spared,” he said.

11th August Foundation spokesman Umar Kashmiri also denounced the act. “Even the non-Kashmiri rights activists are becoming the victims of state brutality for speaking the truth,” he said.

Peoples Rights Movement Chairman Abdul Kabir also condemned the detention. The International People’s Tribunal on Human Rights and Justice in Kashmir (IPTK) has condemned the denial of entry of one of its Conveners and prominent HR activist, Gautam Navlakha, into the Valley.

In a statement, Dr Angana Chatterji, Convener IPTK and Professor, Anthropology, California Institute of Integral Studies, said Navlakha’s “denial of entry raises urgent concerns about the status of freedom of speech and movement in Kashmir.”

“We understand that harassment, intimidation, and threats to IPTK members or their families are acts aimed to target and obstruct the work of the Tribunal. We remain gravely concerned about the physical and psychological safety and integrity of all Tribunal members. We remain gravely concerned about our ability to continue our work, and the ability of out-of-state Tribunal members to travel to Kashmir,” the statement said.