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Showing posts with label Indo-Pak relations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indo-Pak relations. Show all posts

Saturday, June 4, 2011

Water crisis can trigger nuclear war in South Asia

By: Musharaf Zahoor
http://jkmpic.blogspot.com
Islamabad, 4 June: Water is an ambient source, which unlike human beings does not respect boundaries. Water has been a permanent source of conflict between the tribes since biblical times and now between the states. The conflicts are much more likely among those states, which are mainly dependent on shared water sources, reports Musharaf Zahoor in KMS.

The likelihood of turning these conflicts into wars is increased when these countries or states are mainly arid or receive low precipitations. In this situation, the upper riparian states (situated on upper parts of a river basin) often try to maximize water utility by neglecting the needs of the lower riparian states (situated on low lying areas of a river basin).

However, international law on distribution of trans-boundary river water and mutually agreed treaties by the states have helped to some extent in overcoming these conflicts. In the recent times, the climate change has also affected the water availability. The absence of water management and conservation mechanisms in some regions particularly in the third world countries have exacerbated the water crisis. These states have become prone to wars in future.

South Asia is among one of those regions where water needs are growing disproportionately to its availability. The high increase in population besides large-scale cultivation has turned South Asia into a water scarce region. The two nuclear neighbors Pakistan and India share the waters of Indus Basin. All the major rivers stem from the Himalyan region and pass through Kashmir down to the planes of Punjab and Sindh empty into Arabic ocean. It is pertinent that the strategic importance of Kashmir, a source of all major rivers, for Pakistan and symbolic importance of Kashmir for India are maximum list positions. Both the countries have fought two major wars in 1948, 1965 and a limited war in Kargil specifically on the Kashmir dispute.

Among other issues, the newly born states fell into water sharing dispute right after their partition. Initially under an agreed formula, Pakistan paid for the river waters to India, which is an upper riparian state. After a decade long negotiations, both the states signed Indus Water Treaty in 1960. Under the treaty, India was given an exclusive right of three eastern rivers Sutlej, Bias and Ravi while Pakistan was given the right of three Western Rivers, Indus, Chenab and Jhelum. The tributaries of these rivers are also considered their part under the treaty.

It was assumed that the treaty had permanently resolved the water issue, which proved a nightmare in the latter course. India by exploiting the provisions of IWT started wanton construction of dams on Pakistani rivers thus scaling down the water availability to Pakistan (a lower riparian state). The treaty only allows run of the river hydropower projects and does not permit to construct such water reservoirs on Pakistani rivers, which may affect the water flow to the low lying areas. According to the statistics of Hydel power Development Corporation of Indian Occupied Kashmir, India has a plan to construct 310 small, medium and large dams in the territory.

India has already started work on 62 dams in the first phase. The cumulative dead and live storage of these dams will be so great that India can easily manipulate the water of Pakistani rivers. India has set up a department called the Chenab Valley Power Projects to construct power plants on the Chenab River in occupied Kashmir. India is also constructing three major hydro-power projects on Indus River which include Nimoo Bazgo power project, Dumkhar project and Chutak project. On the other hand, it has started Kishan Ganga hydropower project by diverting the waters of Neelum River, a tributary of the Jhelum, in sheer violation of the IWT.

The gratuitous construction of dams by India has created serious water shortages in Pakistan. The construction of Kishan Ganga dam will turn the Neelum valley, which is located in Azad Kashmir into a barren land. The water shortage will not only affect the cultivation but it has serious social, political and economic ramifications for Pakistan. The farmer associations have already started protests in Southern Punjab and Sindh against the non-availability of water. These protests are so far limited and under control. The reports of international organizations suggest that the water availability in Pakistan will reduce further in the coming years. If the situation remains unchanged, the violent mobs of villagers across the country will be a major law and order challenge for the government.

The water shortage has also created mistrust among the federative units, which is evident from the fact that the President and the Prime Minister had to intervene for convincing Sindh and Punjab provinces on water sharing formula. The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) is responsible for distribution of water among the provinces but in the current situation it has also lost its credibility. The provinces often accuse each other of water theft.

In the given circumstances, Pakistan desperately wants to talk on water issue with India. The meetings between Indus Water Commissioners of Pakistan and India have so far yielded no tangible results. The recent meeting in Lahore has also ended without concrete results. India is continuously using delaying tactics to under pressure Pakistan. The Indus Water Commissioners are supposed to resolve the issues bilaterally through talks. The success of their meetings can be measured from the fact that Pakistan has to knock at international court of arbitration for the settlement of Kishan Ganga hydropower project. The recently held foreign minister level talks between both the countries ended inconclusively in Islamabad, which only resulted in heightening the mistrust and suspicions.

The water stress in Pakistan is increasing day by day. The construction of dams will not only cause damage to the agriculture sector but India can manipulate the river water to create inundations in Pakistan. The rivers in Pakistan are also vital for defense during wartime. The control over the water will provide an edge to India during war with Pakistan.

The failure of diplomacy, manipulation of IWT provisions by India and growing water scarcity in Pakistan and its social, political and economic repercussions for the country can lead both the countries toward a war. The existent A-symmetry between the conventional forces of both the countries will compel the weaker side to use nuclear weapons to prevent the opponent from taking any advantage of  the situation.

Pakistan's nuclear programme is aimed at to create minimum credible deterrence. India has a declared nuclear doctrine which intends to retaliate massively in case of first strike by its' enemy. In 2003, India expanded the operational parameters for its nuclear doctrine. Under the new parameters, it will not only use nuclear weapons against a nuclear strike but will also use nuclear weapons against a nuclear strike on Indian forces anywhere.

Pakistan has a draft nuclear doctrine, which consists on the statements of high ups. Describing the nuclear thresh-hold in January 2002, General Khalid Kidwai, the head of Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division, in an interview to Landau Network, said that Pakistan will use nuclear weapons in case India occupies large parts of its territory, economic strangling by India, political disruption and if India destroys Pakistan's forces.

The analysis of the ambitious nuclear doctrines of both the countries clearly points out that any military confrontation in the region can result in a nuclear catastrophe. The rivers flowing from Kashmir are Pakistan's lifeline, which are essential for the livelihood of 170 million people of the country and the cohesion of federative units. The failure of dialogue will leave no option but to achieve the ends through military means.

The only way to discard the lurking fear of a nuclear cataclysm is to settle all the outstanding disputes amicably through dialogue. The international community has a special role in this regard. It should impress upon India to initiate meaningful talks to resolve the lingering Kashmir dispute with Pakistan and implement the water treaty in its letter and spirit. The Indian leadership should drive out its policy towards Pakistan from terrorism mantra to a solution-oriented dialogue process. Both the countries should adopt a joint mechanism to maximize the utility of river waters by implementing the 1960 treaty, Besides negotiations with India, Pakistan should start massive water conservation and management projects.

The modern techniques in agriculture like i.e. drip irrigation, should be adopted. On the other hand, there is a dire need to gradually upgrade the obsolete irrigation system in Pakistan. The politicization of mega hydropower projects/dams is also a problem being faced by Pakistan, which can only be resolved through political will.


The writer is a researcher at Department of Nuclear Politics, National Defence University, Islamabad and can be reached at ndu.nuclear@gmail.com

Saturday, May 28, 2011

America is enemy number 1.


So is India still enemy number one? 
No, and I have said this publicly many times. America is enemy number 1. One decade of fighting their war has destroyed Pakistan. The enmity with India did not create the same kind of internal strife. The Kashmir issue is still very important for most Pakistanis but most Pakistanis feel that India and Pakistan are trying to reach some solution on Kashmir through peaceful talks. Some weeks back the United Jehad Council which is the umbrella organisation of all the militant groups issued a statement supporting talks. This undermined the JuD and LeT’s hard stance. The anti-India feeling is certainly fading here. Bollywood films have played a very important role in this. We have so much in common, but the trouble is we only project the short list of what is uncommon between us.

امریکہ دشمن 1 نمبر ہے.
نہیں، اور میں نے یہ کئی بار کہا. امریکہ دشمن 1 نمبر ہے. ان کی جنگ لڑنے میں سے ایک دہائی سے پاکستان کو ہلاک کر ڈالا ہے. بھارت کے ساتھ دشمنی داخلی انتشار کا ایک ہی طرح کی نہیں بنایا تھا. کشمیر کا مسئلہ اب بھی ہے ، زیادہ تر پاکستانی کے لئے بہت اہم ہے لیکن سب سے زیادہ پاکستانیوں کو لگتا ہے کہ پاکستان اور بھارت کے امن مذاکرات کے ذریعے کشمیر پر کوئی حل تک پہنچنے کی کوشش کر رہے ہیں. کچھ ہفتے پہلے اقوام متحدہ جہاد کونسل جس میں تمام عسکری گروپوں کی چھتری تنظیم ہے ایک مذاکرات کی حمایت کر بیان جاری کیا. یہ کمزور جماعت الدعوة اور لشکر کے سخت موقف. بھارت مخالف جذبات ضرور دھندلاہٹ یہاں ہے. بالی وڈ فلموں کی اس میں ایک بہت اہم کردار ادا کیا ہے. ہم دونوں میں بہت ہیں ، لیکن مسئلہ یہ ہے کہ ہم صرف کیا ہم دونوں کے درمیان غیر معمولی ہے کی مختصر فہرست منصوبہ

अमेरिका दुश्मन नंबर 1 है..
इसलिए भारत को अभी भी दुश्मन नंबर एक है?
नहीं, और मैं इस सार्वजनिक रूप से कई बार कहा. अमेरिका दुश्मन नंबर 1 है. उनके युद्ध लड़ने के एक दशक पाकिस्तान को नष्ट कर दिया गया है. भारत के साथ शत्रुता आंतरिक कलह की इसी तरह का निर्माण नहीं किया. कश्मीर मुद्दे अभी भी बहुत अधिकांश पाकिस्तानियों के लिए महत्वपूर्ण है, लेकिन अधिकांश पाकिस्तानियों का मानना ​​है कि भारत और पाकिस्तान को शांतिपूर्ण बातचीत के जरिए कश्मीर पर कुछ समाधान तक पहुँचने की कोशिश कर रहे हैं. कुछ हफ्ते पहले युनाइटेड जेहाद काउंसिल जो सभी उग्रवादी गुटों की छतरी संगठन है एक वार्ता का समर्थन बयान जारी किए हैं. यह कमजोर जमात और लश्कर के कठिन रुख. भारत विरोधी भावना निश्चित रूप से लुप्त होती यहाँ है. बॉलीवुड फिल्मों में यह एक बहुत ही महत्वपूर्ण भूमिका निभाई है. हम इतने आम में ज्यादा है, लेकिन परेशानी यह है कि हम केवल क्या हम दोनों के बीच असामान्य है की संक्षिप्त सूची परियोजना.

پس هند هنوز دشمن شماره یک است؟
نه، و من این بار علنا بسیاری است. امریکا دشمن شماره 1 است. یک دهه از مبارزه با جنگ خود پاکستان را نابود کرده است. دشمنی با هند انجام همان نوع منازعات داخلی را ایجاد کنیم. مسئله کشمیر هنوز هم بسیار مهم برای بسیاری از پاکستانی ها اما اغلب پاکستانی ها احساس می کنید که هند و پاکستان در حال تلاش برای رسیدن به برخی از راه حل در کشمیر از طریق مذاکرات صلح آمیز است. چند هفته پشت متحده جهاد است که شورای سازمان چتر از تمام گروه های شبه نظامی با صدور بیانیه ای حمایت سخن می گوید. این تضعیف JuD و موضع سخت بیایید. ضد هند احساس است که قطعا محو کنید. فیلم های بالیوود که نقش بسیار مهمی در این ایفا کرده است. ما چیزهای زیادی مشترک است ، اما مشکل این است که ما تنها پروژه فهرست کوتاه از آنچه که غیر معمول است بین ما.

Sunday, May 22, 2011

Drones fuel terrorism, says Imran

KARACHI: Tehrik-i-Insaf chief Imran Khan has said that the “war on terror” is not Pakistan’s war and it is harming the country’s integrity. 

Addressing thousands of supporters at a rally held on Saturday at the Natives Jetty bridge leading to the Karachi harbour, he said that drone and other such attacks were breeding terrorism.

Imran Khan said had the leaders heeded his advice, taken a stand against the attacks and opted out of the American-led coalition, this situation would not have emerged.

He termed the sit-in the harbinger of a revolution and vowed to lay the foundation of a new Pakistan with the support of the people after emancipating them from plunderers of national wealth and honour.

He said the protest would convey to the US that “we will not be cowed down by drone attacks”. He said that if and when his party came into power it would finish the terrorists and assimilate the tribal people into the mainstream. He said it was the worst time for the country and the nation had been made subservient to the Americans.

Imran Khan said the drone attacks were being carried out with the connivance of the government and it was only making protests to hoodwink the people.

“It is a fixed match between the government, army and America,” he said. 
Representatives of some other parties and civil society groups also joined the sit-in held in protest against American drone attacks and to call upon the government to change its policy towards the US. The sit-in will continue till Sunday evening.

“Whenever the government wants, drone attacks will stop,” he claimed.
The PTI’s campaign is not only against drone attacks and Nato supplies through the country, but is also aimed at forcing mid-term elections as Imran says the government is not truly democratic and has capitulated to the 
US. He terms the drone attacks a breach of Pakistan’s sovereignty.

Imran Khan also mustered the support of some of the right-wing parties, including the Sunni Tehrik and Jamiat-i-Ulema Islam, and the Sindh National Front. Because of a strong line taken by him against American attacks that have killed people in the tribal areas, a large number of people from the northern region of the country who eke out their living here were also seen at the rally.

They were carrying PTI’s flags and photographs of Aafia Siddiqui and chanting anti-America slogans.